Things are getting pretty heated between Iran and some of its neighbors. Politico and CNN are saying that Trump’s administration is thinking about a plan where Israel would attack first. This would give the U.S. the political and legal reasons to get involved in the war.
Trump’s senior advisers want Israel to strike Iran first, before the U.S. launches an attack. Politico‘s got the scoop.
The publication says that if Israel attacks, Iran will probably respond, and then American voters might be more likely to support a decision to strike Iran.
“Some people in and around the administration think the policy will look better if the Israelis act first and alone, and the Iranians strike back at us, giving us more reason to act,” a source told the publication.
Journalists say the calculation is simple: more Americans will agree to a war with Iran if the U.S. or its ally is attacked first. Recent polls show that Americans, including Republicans, support regime change in Iran, but they’re not willing to risk US casualties to achieve it.
Things aren’t looking good for diplomacy, so the question on everyone’s mind is when and how America will attack Iran.
“No matter what Israel wants to do first, it’s probably going to be a joint US-Israeli operation,” Politico’s sources say.
Things are heating up between the US and Iran
Trump hasn’t decided yet whether to go ahead with strikes against Iran. His decision will depend on the results of the negotiations, especially the assessments of the US delegation led by Special Representative Steve Witkoff and Tehran’s willingness to reach an agreement. Trump might order a small military strike to get what he wants from Iran, or he might launch a bigger operation to change the regime in the country.
On Sunday, Steve Witkoff said that Trump’s order was to make sure Iran couldn’t enrich uranium. The Iranian Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, replied that Tehran wasn’t planning to give up uranium enrichment.
In case Trump gives the green light to military action, the US has amassed its biggest air force in the Middle East since 2003, when the invasion of Iraq took place. The US Navy’s most advanced aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald Ford, is expected to arrive in the region within a few days, becoming the second American aircraft carrier in the area. It’ll be a great addition to the dozens of modern American F-35 and F-22 fighter jets, as well as bombers and refueling aircraft already in the Middle East.
What targets could the US strike?
CNN says that if Trump does decide to strike, US actions might be aimed mostly at the Iranian regime’s security forces. These include the command centers of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), as well as Basij units and the Iranian police, which play a key role in suppressing protests.
But experts say that a lot of these targets are in areas where a lot of people live. This creates the risk of civilian casualties — the very people Washington promises to support.
“No matter what the US does, the strikes have to be as precise as possible and make sure that civilians aren’t hurt, other than the ones involved with the IRGC,” says analyst and former US Navy captain Karl Schuster.
He says that even accidental civilian casualties could turn Iranian dissidents against each other, since they’re currently united mainly by their hatred of the regime. If that happened, the US would be seen as an outside force trying to impose its will on Iran, not as a liberator.
Peter Leighton, an Australian expert from the Griffith Institute, agrees that the risk to the civilian population is a key issue. But he says the US has enough possible targets.
The higher-ups in the Iranian government could be affected, but not necessarily in a direct way.