The upper stage of the Falcon 9 rocket, which is set to launch in early 2025, is predicted to crash into the moon on August 5, 2026, at around 2:44 a.m. Eastern Time. Astronomer Bill Gray predicts that the impact will occur near the Einstein crater at a speed of 8,700 kilometers per hour. While the incident itself poses no threat, it underscores the issue of accumulating space debris in the Earth-Moon system. While scientists hope to study the newly formed crater, they note that, with the emergence of permanent bases on the Moon, such uncontrolled impacts could pose a real danger to infrastructure and crews.
According to a new report, a discarded section of a SpaceX rocket that has been left in space will likely crash into the moon this summer, highlighting a concerning trend, writes LiveScience.
The report emphasizes that the discarded rocket stage poses no danger to the Moon or any active spacecraft. However, the expected August 5 impact may be of “minor scientific interest” if it creates a new crater that can be studied later.
This refers to the 13.8-meter upper stage of the Falcon 9 rocket launched in early 2025, which has been orbiting the Earth-Moon system ever since. The rocket delivered two spacecraft to the moon: the Blue Ghost lander, which successfully landed in March 2025, and the Hakuto-R lander, which lost contact with Earth and made an emergency landing.
Bill Gray, the report’s author and a professional astronomer, used his software to predict the time and location of the collision with a high degree of certainty: approximately 2:44 a.m. Eastern Time on August 5 near the Einstein crater on the side of the Moon facing Earth.
Unfortunately, any flash from the impact will likely be too faint to be seen from Earth, even with a large telescope. The scientific value will lie in studying the fresh crater left by the debris.
Is this a worrying trend?
This isn’t the first time Gray has predicted a rocket crash on the moon. In 2022, he correctly predicted that a spent rocket stage would crash into the moon on March 4, pinpointing the time of impact to within a few seconds and the location to within a few miles.
Gray’s new report has not yet been published in a peer-reviewed journal, but he has asked several astronomers to verify his findings. He predicts that the debris will hit the moon at approximately 8,700 km/h (5,400 mph)—about seven times the speed of sound on Earth.
Currently, there is no infrastructure on the Moon that could be damaged by the debris, but this may change in a few years. Given the international interest in establishing permanent bases near the Moon’s south pole, this region may soon be crowded with cargo, crews, and spacecraft.